tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg September 23, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm EDT
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, covering stories in san francisco and washington and beijing this hour. here's what we are watching. rebounded stocks and bonds sputtering after a rally driven by global central banks. markets remain on track to end the week higher. we are seeing a big stock move in one particular company, twitter shares surging the most in more than two years on reports the company may soon get a takeover offer. bloomberg's editor-in-chief caught up with the turkish president. he said he is not worried if the country's debt gets downgraded to junk. we are halfway through the u.s. trading day and check in on what you as a global rally that has kind of lost steam. julie hyman has more. julie: do we have breaking news as well? matt: the fed is out, proposing
aggressive regulation on wall street commodity holdings. the regulation would require banks to support activities involving physical commodity according to a statement just released. the proposal would impose a on physicaleight commodities, assets, investment banks such as goldman sachs and morgan stanley are allowed to own through a grandfather provision. the plan would impose a 300% risk weight on physical commodities, holdings permissible through couple mentoring authority, emergence thinking. the fed would tighten escorted tate limits on physical thatdity trading firms, may participate in this. let's take a look at some of the banks and see how they are trading on this. i will pull up goldman sachs here, and you can see, sharpest spike down but a little bit of a recovery.
there's goldman sachs. let's look at morgan stanley. i'm sure it will look similar although not quite as pronounced. across regulation coming on commodities holdings, and we will continue to parse through these headlines on the bloomberg and give you the details as we understand them. julie, back to you. julie: i appreciate it. should be interesting to see how that affects those stocks going throughout the day. when we look at stocks today we are seeing a leg lower as well. all three major averages have been down 1/4 of 1%. now they are extending those losses, thanks in part to the fed and the commentary we got earlier in the week. the selloff coming on the heels of a strong week, being led by tech stocks. also want to look at what is going on with the 10 year yield, which at the moment is unchanged but has been trending lower this week. we have been seeing and uptick in the correlation between stocks and bonds.
on the top here, just looking at the 10 year yields versus stocks, and whether they been moving together. this is the correlation, and whether they are correlated together. when he goes into the red, that means they are positively correlated, meaning we are seeing buying a boat stocks and bonds. as you can see on the far right, that downtick means the correlation has increased. that is something to watch in the coming weeks because it is not something that historically has been in effect. in the stock market we are watching twitter, after the cbc reported he was getting closer to a sale. 19%can see those shares up rate latebreaking news in just according tohour, bloomberg news reporting, alaska air and virgin america have agreed to delay their merger plans to give the justice department more time to review their deal, a $2.6 billion deal.
took aamerica shares sharp leg lower and even though they remain lower by 1%, they were covered pretty handily from those lows the session. alaska air, we have been watching those shares as well. those two have taken a downtick but not as dramatically. they are down 6/10 of 1%. thanks very much. julie hyman with a look at the market after that breaking news headlines on the fed. they will tighten commodities, holding regulations for big banks, and we will talk about that throughout the day on bloomberg. we go to courtney collins in our newsroom. clinton and donald trump are off the campaign trail today, preparing for their first debate. "the new york times" reports clinton is testing a line to attack trump.
be thes face-off could most watched presidential debate since ronald reagan and jimmy carter in 1980. make sure to tune in on monday for our special coverage of the first presidential debate. bloomberg politics will be on the ground in hempstead, new york before and after the event. we're also teaming up with twitter as the exclusive streaming partner for the debates. s.twitter.com,ate or follow on b-politics. charlotte, north carolina say they have arrested a suspect in the deadly shooting of a protester during demonstrations wednesday night. the mayor of charlotte says video of the police shooting of keith scott should be released. he said the question is on the timing. scott was fatally shot by an officer, who is also black. protests last night were relatively peaceful. the oklahoma state medical examiner's office says the man
killed by a tulsa police officer died from a gunshot wound to the chest. his death is considered a homicide, but a full autopsy and toxicology reports are not complete. wasce say the drug pcp founded his suv. the officer has been charged with first-degree manslaughter. the man will be remembered at a ceremony today at tulsa community college, where he was a student. painting a bleak outlook for greece. it says unemployment will stay in the double digits for more than three decades. the country's this goal targets are still unrealistic. the imf says greece needs deep reforms and debt relief from its european creditors. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm courtney collins. this is bloomberg. turning to turkey, in the wake of july's attended coup, president are the one
faces increased pressure from the international community and its allies. bloombergt down with in new york to discuss his frustrations with the delay in next tradition and the fight against islamic state in syria. >> all the documents, testimonies have been given, and the orderly officer to our chief of staff have said the past year is behind us. he even said if he wants, he can speak with our leader. to whom, to the chief of staff. all of this is in the records. so what are we going to prove? we sent all this to american authorities. we have such a history, for example. together, right? have solidarity. so we caught them and after catching them, we delivered them to america.
the same thing, we want the head of this organization who is in our strategic documents. we are together in nato. give him to us and let us try him. but they said, the court is going to decide. can't wait forwe these kinds of decisions from these kind of courts. this crime wasn't committed in the u.s. it was committed in turkey. let us make the decision. >> another area where you are working as an ally in america is syria. you have put turkish troops into the country, you are constructing a buffer zone. it seems to be about as big as the grand canyon, to protect refugees. we had an american-russian peace plan which is supported. over the past week that seems to
be coming apart with each side accusing the other. to be an honest broker who would say, who is to blame for this plan coming apart? is it america's fault or russia's? >> we have to determine the truth. is as american or russia close to syria as we are. we have a 911 kilometer border with syria. rder, we haveat bo citizens, especially living around the border cities. we have family ties in syria. we are that close together. this, syria is
mixed up. of course, it's not just syria. iraq this, syria is mixed is also like that. what is being said, bring down daesh in syria. k, who are we going to bring daesh down with? when we look at america, they are saying pyd, ypg, we are going to bring it down with them. as the coalition countries, how many countries are in syria. there are 65 countries. ypg,y, look, this pyd, they are also a terrorist organization. terrorist organization get taken out by another terrorist organization? it's being done wrong. >> you had the u.s. defense secretary talking about continuing to support the ypg. is that a source of great concern for you?
>> it's a source of concern. three days ago america landed 2 planes full of weapons in kobani to home, the pyd and ypg. they are committing a grave wrong before the eyes of the .orld against daeshing aren't terrorists, then al-nusra aren't terrorists. but pyd, ypg, these are stillborn children of the pkk terrorist organization in my country. they are together, they are the same. since there are 65 countries in the coalition, this get together, let's bring down daesh.
have no doubt, together we will do it. but if you get up and distinguish amongst terrorists, you are harming turkey. because we are disturbed by this terrorist group you are defending. they constitute a threat to our country. by giving them weapons, you are strengthening this threat to our future. subject of russia and america, i ask you at the beginning who was to blame for what happened in the past week more. i want to believe that the one that bombed the u.n. convoy was the regime. the regime bombed itself. that is the intelligence coming to us. aidright after that we have
being delivered by red crescent. notr that, our people could come in and they had to postpone. matt: that was turkey's president erdogan. scarlet: a quick check here on brent crude, a leg lower p read it was above $48 this morning, now just around 4650. this is after saudi arabia said to not expect a decision on out what at next week's meeting in algiers. they are meeting tuesday in wednesday. according to an opec delegate familiar with that country's real policies, saudi arabia anticipates the meeting will be a chance to consult rather than make a decision on perhaps something like a freeze. we saw wti decline for the first time this week and as a result, energy companies in the s&p 500 are falling. you actually only have one energy company in the s&p 500 that is up. we will continue to keep an eye
on oil for you. matt: the fed came out moments ago with new, aggressive regulations on banks like morgan stanley, like goldman sachs, and how they can hold commodities, how they have to account for that. cme group down 1%. goldman sachs down 1.25%. we could see these regulations affect all kinds of commodities holdings, including energy, and banks,ng the way these financial street power plants. the financials index as a whole has taken a big leg down as well. cover theseinue to two breaking stories. big, breaking market stories for you. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm scarlet fu. matt: i am matt miller. the fed is proposing tighter regulations. this would acquire banks to boost capital. bloomberg's jesse westbrook, who oversees financial regulation coverage for us. jesse, talk to me about what we learned, the basics here. why is the fed doing this to start with? >> the fed is trying to make it , thanksively expensive to own power plants, metals. this is different than the trading they engage in with derivatives. the capital standards they issued here are so high, so punitive. it would not make sense for banks to continue engaging in these businesses. scarlet: have we seen banks get
out of these businesses in anticipation of these onerous changes? >> these rules have been long time coming. they been in the pipeline forever. it has been politically unpopular for banks to be engaged in these businesses. for the most part, wall street has been getting out of its physical commodity businesses. one exception to that is goldman sachs, which has stayed the course and said that this is very important to their market making functions and that customers like them doing this. so they have been a bit of a foot drag her, so to speak. if these rules are finalized and come to fruition, it would force goldman out as well. scarlet: goldman sachs with its heritage in acquiring the company, that was a commodities trader the lloyd blankfein is now the chief executive off. he came over from the commodities side. matt: say a lot about why he thinks it's important trade --
important. jesse: businesses commodity near and dear to lloyd blankfein's heart. he definitely has a special place for commodities in his background. matt: where does that push this kind of trading? other banks have been getting out of this business. somebody has to make a market in this stuff. does it go to chicago? would certainly still be permitted to make markets and derivatives on energy trading. if you're are going to trade a swath that is tied to metals or it, you willme still call goldman sachs to do that. what goldman can't do is own an oil tanker or powerplant. concerns about a powerplant blowing up and the liability for a bank blowing a hole in its balance sheet. the fed is concerned about that
great there's also a concerned that banks that are making markets and derivatives, they get a huge advantage by seeing the flows of physical commodities. that's another thing the fed is trying to address. scarlet: there is an exception to the rule, right? copper would not be part of this list of precious metals banks are allowed to own and store. are being very punitive on copper as well. that's being added to the list of metals that banks would be excluded from participating in. matt: jesse, thank you for joining us. a live fact breaking story. really appreciate this input on your friday afternoon. still ahead, we are talking green exchange traded funds that focus on the environment rate have they missed their day in the sun? that discussion coming up with our etf specialist. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: you are watching "bloomberg markets." i am matt miller. scarlet: the number of green etf's have increased in the past two years. now, creation of these etf's has been fueled by optimism over future demand. as that optimism trailing? joining us is bloomberg's etf analyst. with president obama you would figure that green energy climate change, all of that would be big themes and you would really see a rise in these kinds of investments. >> that's right. this whole playing the white house, if this doesn't dispel your hopes of trying to gain the white house, i don't know what will. if you take rocket sectors global alternative energy etf, they went up 0% in the past eight years. that has been the problem with green energy etf's getting assets. around 2007e back
which got to 1.7 billion traded was doing well. then it got decimated in 2008. if you have these investments, they are usually the first thing you sell in a crisis. it wasn't exactly obama's fault per se but it hasn't really caught on in terms of performance. the energy etf had a good run in 2013, went up 100%. both the solar energy etf's are down 92% since they came out. these kinds of products are going to attract investors if they start performing. matt: maybe they were a little bit ahead of their time, right? we have started to see this become more a part of our daily lives. a tesla is no longer like an unbelievably magical unicorn that you have been -- that you happen to see on the highway. they are all over the place. his solar energy just not picked up as a normal source for consumers? this is the economy, it has been sluggish, wage growth.
we have seen this -- people aren't going to buy these things if they don't have access money. that has been part of the problem, and i think there has been some climate accords and future outlooks the companies are going to have to adapt to be more clean, and i think there's a start of the clean energy etf which looks more like a black hole in terms of performance. nothing in the equity side is down that much in the past eight years, 92% takes it. there is a new form of green etf's that is sort of coming up, and these are called low carbon etf's. clean energy etf's wrap up a bunch of stocks involved in making the world cleaner. new style anda what it says is, we know you want to be green but you don't want to mess with these volatile solar etf's. s&p, weoing to take the
are going to go in and surgically remove the carbon footprints on it so that it moves very much the same as the s&p or efa. it will be 90% less carbon footprint while maintaining 92% correlation to it. that has been the new school that has gained a lot of assets. scarlet: what about performance? >> this year it is lagging eight had because you have less energy . the chart would show it right on top of the s&p or efa and you can use it as a core exposure. up with three days to go until the first presidential debate, we take a look at the candidates' economic and trade plans and the scary implications of both. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is bloomberg markets. let's take it off with the headlines from the -- kick it off with the headlines from bloomberg first would news. courtney: it to the wild, but the republican base seems to be g donald trump. a poll found that 85% of republican voters back donald trump and mike pence. meanwhile, hillary clinton is leading donald trump in the latest nationwide poll. leads 45% to 39% in a four-way contest. man chargedf the with setting off bombs in new york and new jersey says his sons personality changed after a trip to afghanistan. speaking to the associated press on monday said that he told the
fbi about his apparent radicalization. he was shot and severely injured during an arrest on monday and has been unconscious since undergoing surgery on monday. a computer hacker who helped the islamic state has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. a native of kosovo, he was sentenced in federal court in alexandria, virginia. boths convicted of computer hacking and terrorist charges. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney collins. this is bloomberg. matt: thank you very much. as we await the first debate between donald trump and hillary clinton, a new report is out about the candidates economic plan. trumpsdy shows that proposals would cost five point $3 trillion over 10 years while clinton's plan would cost $200
billion. joining us now with more is jonathan nichols, who covers the budget. a lot of times conservatives, or republicans, include economic growth forecasts that cancel out the actual cost of the plan, which is why the price tag seems so high. a lot of times it does turn out to be that high. is that what is happening here? >> that is one thing that the trump campaign has said. if you score their plan with those economic feedback effects incorporated, that is not $4.4 trillion, more like $2.6 trillion. ther people say i assumptions used to get to that number is the growth assumptions they expect to occur with the economy, basically wildly optimistic. this report in particular leaves those assumptions out. what youit depends
want to call it economic feedback or dynamic scoring. the numbers fit however you want. what are the critical differences between the two candidates plans? >> for the most part, where trump adds to the deficit is basically a gross amount of $5.8 trillion in tax cuts, offset by a little more than $1 trillion thepending cuts, whereas clinton plan is basically about $1.6 trillion in spending increases offset by about $1.5 trillion in revenue increases. basically hers is a spending policy and his are tax focused changes in policy. matt: we had been hearing the call for a path to monetary policy to fiscal policy. the price tag on the
trunk plan -- trump plan is eerily similar to the growth in the fed balance sheet over the years. does clinton's plan include any fiscal stimulus? >> hers is focused mainly on bread-and-butter type things. college education is one of the larger aspects of what she would spend her extra money on. some more money for the afford will care act, things like that. when you consider that over the next 10 years we will be spending about $50 trillion, taking about $41.5 trillion -- $200 billion here and there over 10 years is not going to have much impact on the economy. that is what you said about both of these plans, not much economic feedback from either one. torlet: the final question you. clinton's plan incorporates some element that she adopted from
bernie sanders proposal. >> a brought it down a bit. there is a step up in the basis of capital gains. she also talks of like-minded exchanges were you take one good asset and exchange it for another and you don't have to pay for the capital gains until you sell the new aspect. the crp had estimate her proposal at 200 billion dollars, some of those changes bring it down to the now $200 million price tag. matt: thank you so much for joining us from washington. scarlet: from economic policy to trade agendas, the candidates also have very different economic plans, both would have on theive impact
economy. joining us is the author of the study. thank you for joining us. the key findings in your research is that trumps trade policies would send the u.s. in recession and clinton's policies would also be harmful. why would clinton's policies do more damage? both of the candidates oppose the transpacific partnership, the major trade deal currently on the agenda. both of the candidates oppose it, and we think that is economic andf both geopolitical grounds. trump goes much further. he has promised to slap punitive sanctions or tariffs on trade with china and mexico. he is talked about aggregating existing free trade agreements such as nafta and the u.s.-korea free trade agreement, and he has
also talked about pulling out of the wto. trump's policies take a bad race line and then take them to an extreme level. scarlet: something i found intriguing is how little we take everything trump is saying. she wrote that the press takes him literally, but not seriously. his supporters take him seriously but not literally. as we go through all the different numbers -- a 45% aariff on chinese imports -- lot of people say these are just starting points, the numbers could be anything that at the end with the day because he sees everything as negotiable. matt: absolutely. also, he finds all of these trade deals to be bad. previously, you would have thought that democrats were enacting more protectionist policies and democrats were more for free trade.
her platform much more free trade oriented or is she also in protectionist mode? >> let me address that and go back to the issue of health howories to take -- seriously to take mr. trump. i think the one thing that mrs. clinton represents is tighter enforcement of existing agreements. she is not actively saying that she wants to go backwards and impose protection. with mr. trump, i would agree with you, his statements to pose analytical challenges for people like me, try to figure out what they mean. i don't think you can simply dismissed them as being negotiated employees -- negotiating ploys or gambits. his advisers always return to the example of ronald reagan in the early 1980's. that is not good at all.
in the early 1980's, in the context of the cold war, the united states was japan's ultimate guarantor. the united states could place demands on japan, and in the end, however grudgingly, the japanese would comply. the situation today could not be any more different. china is our strategic rival, not a client state. it has diploma gains to be made by the u.s. if we threatened china or mexico, we have to assume that they will retaliate, not just surrender, as japan may have in the 1980's. matt: trump supporters, the negative effect that they seeme the have lived through from 1980's, if you look back, what conclusion to come to? >> i conclude that nafta was a great success for the united states and mexico.
if mexico does badly -- if the mexican economy is functioning badly, we get more undocumented migration into the united states. right now, the mexican economy is doing reasonably well. the net flow of migrants is to mexico, not into the united states. as au aggregate nafta tremendous blow to mexico, you will get more undocumented migrants and illicit activities coming from mexico, not less. matt: that is a great point. what about the success of the u.s.? we perceive trump supporters to be people who have lost jobs, , in manufacturing in the u.s., and they would then blame nafta as they see u.s. car manufacturers opening up in mexico. a very good point.
the opening of trade is going to help create some opportunities. it is also going to diminish others. there clearly -- there are clearly people who have been disadvantage from the opening of trade to mexico. the point is opening of trade pushes employment towards higher productivity, more higher income jobs. over all, it is good for the country. although, i would make, there are people who have been disadvantaged. if you look at this analysis of the state-by-state impact, under trumps proposals, to cite one example, the state of his pence, late, mike indiana could stand to lose -- or have a decline of employment of more than fiv 4%. if you look at our report, the industrial midwest is among the
worst affected areas because those are areas where both advanced manufacturers as well as the areas hurt by recession in the united states by declined in investment. if you're worried about the decline of manufacturing in the e midwest, the last thing you want to do is start a trade war with china or mexico. scarlet: your research has shown that a lot of the low skilled jobs are not linked to international trade in any way. >> one of the really eye-opening things about the report is, if you have a shock to the manufacturing sector, due to the let me give you a specific example. if china were to stop dying boeing aircraft, there would be an obvious impact on everett,
washington, but it would not just be boeing workers. people who work at car dealerships, at the local mall, at fast food restaurants, would all be impacted by the income loss of those boeing workers. we find that the biggest impacts are not in the manufacturing sector, although it has the most intense impact. the larger impacts in absolute terms are in retail distribution those, who many of you can observe, do not realize they have a stake in this debate. thank you so much for joining us today. >> my pleasure. matt: i want to add a programming note, bloomberg politics will have special coverage of the first presidential debate between hillary clinton and donald
trump. surely these issues will come up then as well. scarlet: coming up now, you have three fed president speaking thehiladelphia, discussing of upcomingput policy. and, mr. kaplan is talking about oil. he said it should be in balance by the first part of next year. watch this on bloomberg using live go. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. i'm scarlet fu. pursuits, bloomberg the brexit vote is bringing more luxury buyers to london and the experiencing an extraordinary here in china. it impacted persons from other towns and has attracted tourists from can't know europe. it is not that the pie has grown, but that the pie is cheaper for the uk. global brands are represented in london. lostbly what we might have in other european countries, we have more than be gained to it in london. the chinese government itself is
to foster the movement. usually we take advantage of the governments. scarlet: for more, check out pursuit, your destination for the finer things in life. it is on the bloomberg. ge ceooming up, former on corporate culture in the age of scandals, like the one at wells fargo. what should ceos caught up in crises do? his insight, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: this is bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. wells fargo ceo has tapped down from the advisory council. this comes after his bank opened 2 million allegedly bogus accounts. many are calling for his resignation. jack wash says that leadership is important in crises. >> when you are facing a crisis, when you first hear about it, there are few truths. one is that it is always worse than the first message. they waited a while to give you the message. secondly, there are no secrets.
as you approach the problem, know that the whole world is probably on hold. know that you will be the trade -- portray did in the worst possible light. the media will choke you and beat you to a pulp. be prepared for that. the fourth is you have to realize the you have to take ofitive action and project view of the future. you have to understand that there will be blood on the floor. blood will spill. absolutely the case if you look at any one of these crises. somewhere, blood spills in some way. finally, you have to know you will come out the other end of better company. you will come out the other end. there is an end. >> what is your advice then to stumpf. he seemed to say, the buck stops with the lower employees and then you have to ask the board
what they will do. >> he will wrestle with one issue. how can this go on for 4-5 years? issue, a cultural question of the wrong measurement. you get what you reward. account numbers, you will get account numbers. customerward satisfaction, you will get customer satisfaction. >> how do you change that culture? what you do as ceo to change the culture? >> you can never let anybody go home and say they want to spend more time with the family. if they have done something bad, you hang out there. the lawyers will say, don't do that -- do it. it sends a better message. what you do with personnel around bad behavior says more
than good behavior. role model knows behaviors with great rewards for those who have the right culture and public hangings for those who don't. ceolet: that was the former and current manager of welch on bloomberg . matt: it is time for your business/. starting with twitter, they a share in salesforce.com. the report says that the process is in the early stages and might not lead to a deal. in twosoared the most years today after report that said the company could be moving e, but they sla still have not gotten back to the ipo price of $26. scarlet: speaking of m&a, alaska air and virgin have said they
will delay their merge. antitrust officials can now take several more weeks beyond the original closing date to complete the review. matt: the relationship between banks and their holdings could become prohibitively expensive. the regulation would restrict ownership of power plants and limit the amount of trading for can do.ks the proposal would mean about $4 orlion in additional capital firms' current activity should they be changed. be changed. scarlet: ups is teaming up with a robot maker to test out delivery by drones. testing begins today. gather allow them to engineering and cost information
matt: we are coming to you live from our world headquarters in midtown manhattan, covering stories from san francisco to kosovote and christina, was well the sour. global stocks selling off as a rally fueled by this week's fed decision fades, ever core chairman ed hyman tells us why the u.s. central bank is likely timesse rates a couple of next year. donald trump wants to go from billionaire businessman to president of the united states, but if he loses his bid for the white house, he may have also lost some of the value of his brand. we will discuss that as well as twitter shares surging on reports that the company may be close to a sale. we take a look at potential suitors and what it could mean for the social media company and its hundreds of millions of
users. first, we are halfway into the trading day. julie hyman is here with the latest. first, a look at crude oil. julie: this is happening in the last hour or so, you talked about the headlines earlier. oil now down 4%. there is a report that saudi arabia was said to dismiss the prospects for an output agreement to stabilize oil market. opec will be meeting in algiers next week. there have been talks that that meeting would become a formal meeting and then there has also been speculation that saudi arabia would potentially on board with some production agreement but now it looks like those hopes have been dashed once again. oil prices lowered by 4%. that is having a ripple effect. take a look at the s&p energy index, now down, falling 1.4%. the biggest drive on the s&p 500. then if you bring it back to
the overall averages at the moment, we are seeing them pretty much at their lows of the session as a result of this leg lower in oil prices. not that much of a leg down for the major averages, interestingly enough, the s&p energy index isn't most heavily weighted in the s&p so that perhaps accounts for the idea that they are not falling more. we have some of the interest rates in groups trading higher today. as we see that action and oil we have been watching the action at goldman sachs and morgan stanley. the federal reserve is proposing new rules that will make it more expensive for them to trade commodities, essentially meaning that they will have to raise more capital in order to do so. do with physical commodities, because there have been criticisms of these banks, that they hold the physical commodities and also do trading of them, speculative trading of them in some cases. see shares of both of those stocks are down, and finally we're watching the
casinos today. yes indeed, we've seen some of the gross gaming revenue numbers the stockshat still lately have been trading a little too optimistically, given the outlook for macau. thank you so much, julie hyman perry let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. sayse president of turkey he will work with whomever wins the u.s. presidential elections in november. president or the one sat down with bloomberg editor-in-chief john nickel suite in new york. her do one noted that -- erdog an noted that he started his presidency with george bush and with president obama. with president obama. >> we will continue our work with america.
out of the question for us to break ties with america. erdogan blasted the u.s. for not extraditing an islamic cleric, who turkish authorities of blame for the failed coup. he dismissed u.s. arguments that in a tradition request must work its way through the judicial system. 162 bodies were pulled out of the waters off the coast just three days after hundreds of refugees heading to europe drowned. dozens more feared dead. egypt has been a traditional route for people seeking to reach europe by sea. meanwhile, hillary clinton says if she were president, she would sign a bill allowing 9/11 victims to sue saudi arabia. president obama is expected to veto the bill today. the white house says mr. obama believes the law could leave u.s. officials open to retaliatory lawsuits. donald trump is leading hillary
clinton in a two-way race. a new fox news poll finds trouble ahead of clinton 45% to 40% in the critical battleground state. clinton in theer buckeye state comes primarily from support among independents and working-class whites. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm courtney collins. this is bloomberg. bet: now, december seems to the next potential date for any interest rate hike by the federal reserve. the mostsent votes, recent to go around, there is new interest in diverging views among its members. --lier today one of those said in a statement that he is modestarguing for gradual tightening now out of concerns that not doing so today will put the recovery positive
duration and sustainability at greater risk. the evercore chairman also weighed in on whether the fed made the right call. >> i'm ok with what the fed did. i don't see a big cost of waiting, and you have the election coming up, which isn't talked about a lot. if they had tightened, the dollar spiked up and oil had gone down a lot, and emerging markets get hit, they probably would have regretted that. i think it's ok to wait right when we get to december we will look again. i don't have any huge anxiety that we are missing the boat by being a little bit slower here. scarlet: you think the economy may be could not have taken the hike? >> i think the economy could take the hike. i don't see a problem with waiting a little bit. you have that other factor, the election, just coming up. to wait until after the election is probably ok. >> just to let you see into the bloomberg terminal, you can see
that for next year, two hikes priced in in terms of the median forecast. is that what you foresee for next year? >> that sounds reasonable for me. i'm sure the u.s. economy is doing well. i travel around the u.s. a lot. i visited dallas and houston and austin this past week and they're definitely doing well. hearseattle to chicago to to miami. the economy is clearly doing a little bit better. they will probably hike a couple of times next year. >> i want to point viewers into the bloomberg. withu look in comparison the japan yield curve, you can see there were obviously a lot flatter and the japan movement in the last couple of days has been interesting. in terms of central banking activity around the world, do
you feel like it's working these days? but it'sorking some, not working clearly enough that they are not thinking about the next step, which is fiscal policy. i would think the odds are almost 100% that in 2017 we get some fiscal policy. i do think that we don't know what the counterfactual would be, if they didn't do it, what would've happened. the u.s. economy is much better, see unemployment is five or send, and the financial markets, some markets up. i think they've had some impact. everybody agrees that we need to push on to fiscal stimulus to augment the monetary stimulus we have been having. they're still doing a lot of monetary stimulus, which is keeping bond yields down so much. >> one of the more interesting surveys that came out recently managers oneund which talked about the biggest
tail risk. some of the charge was very interesting, eu disintegration, followed by a trump presidency, which leads me to my question. what are your top three big tail risk worries right now? >> my first worry is that i'm beginning to see some witness in the u.s. economy that i think is election related or trump related, the uncertainty surrounding that, and then second, once we get past the election, we will have to get into the december rate hike. that will present a challenge to the financial system, and then longer-term, i worry about how we get out of all of this, zero interest rates, qe. that is what keeps me up at night or a little bit awake. >> is it beginning to be priced trumpe possibility of a presidency?
i know the odds are barely 1 in 4. is it going to be priced in? at what junction do we see investors seriously pricing this in? >> now. the markets are very aggressive. iere's hardly a thing you or can think of that doesn't start to get priced in, like the fed rate hike possibility in december. i would say the market might be -- the s&p might be 5% or 10% lower today than it would he otherwise, of the election coming up. it'sthose sort of odds, high enough to be a risk factor in the market. a's already priced into certain extent. if it looks like trump is going to win, there will be a little bit more pressure on the stock market. matt: that was ed hyman, the chairman of evercore isi joining us on bloomberg markets. scarlet: the trump brand has
matt: you are watching "bloomberg markets." scarlet: trump supporters by his hat, but can they afford his hotel rooms? match could hurt his brand, especially if the republican nominee does not win the election. rant once upon a time used to mean success, best of the best. it was very one dimensional. whatever your opinion might have
been of donald trump, you associated this name trump with luxury, opulence, over the top posh, success. it's gotten complicated and that is the problem for him. regardless of your politics, the name now comes with other connotations. sliceis certainly a large of people out there who have been alienated by his presidential campaign and the concern is for his business, are those the key customers that he is targeting his products to? matt: we are already seeing this happen when people play at a trump golf course and they tweet a picture because it is so ironic, the person would never vote for donald trump but here he is playing at the trump links. is it possible that donald trump has shift his business interests after this election if he doesn't win? >> it's possible that when he returns to his business, if he come november he is
headed back to his manhattan offices rather than the white house, he could have a very different brand to be dealing with. people talked about him starting a conservative media company, which would capitalize on the support he's gotten through his presidential campaign, versus continuing to try and promote this company that is all around luxury high-end projects that are targeted at people who are making over $100,000, so he doesn't pull well with, women, who make the bulk of spending decisions, and millennials, the biggest him a graphic of shoppers out there and are coming into their prime spending years, who also don't view trump very favorably in a lot of polls. scarlet: matt mentioned going to the driving course and everything. how are trump's business is doing in terms of the casinos, hotels? is he getting a bump up in business from the media attention? >> if you look at his belly on 5th avenue, it's become like a tourist destination -- building
on 5th avenue, it's become like a tourist destination. trump's organization does not release financial data. they say business is going things are surpassing their expectations. we have outside data we were able to find. one is from foursquare, which doesn't just track check ins but the actual locations of people who have it turned on. they say visits to trump companies are down 14% year-over-year as of july. to millennialls travelers. they showed bookings at trump operatives were down more than 50%. if there was a demographic he would not too good with -- his businesses, he just licenses his brand right? the building on 5th avenue he owns and he talks about that a lot great a lot of businesses
like casinos and hotels, he will just license his brand. >> right. getsnot just trump who hurt. it's a people he did the licensing deals with. some buildings where he might own part of them but he doesn't own the entire building, the other investors who have gone in on it too. there's more than trump the man himself who is impacted, not to mention employees. of the trump part brand has done pretty well throughout this election campaign, and that's his kids, particularly ivanka. >> yes. i try to find data on her clothing line and it seems to be doing quite well. the perception of the brand around the kids is good and if he becomes president and hence the business over to his kids as he has suggested, the brand consultants said, maybe that could help improve the brand a little bit there as people see, these successful, well spoken, attractive people running the company, and that is something they want to be associated with. matt: and that would be huge.
>> if he doesn't win, brent consultants say maybe five years from now he will have forgotten this whole thing. matt: mark said earlier that the odds that trump wins the presidency's are 1 in 4. it would be a jackpot for the kids if they were handed that business. shannon pettypiece, bloomberg retail reporter talking about the trump brand. a cloud software maker raised $96 million in its ipo. is one ofd horowitz its early investors. we will talk to the ceo and cofounder, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
fear robots destroying your job straight new technologies are creating new opportunities for workers. the global head of investment research on the future of jobs. >> it's people entrepreneurs a create the new jobs. technology by and large has always performed the function of allowing you to do more of the work you used to do more easily with less resources. .hat's what productivity means the new jobs are typically on things people never thought of before, services they wanted it could not organize before. most of the jobs you have today, nobody would have dreamed of in 1910 or 1950. it's about entrepreneurship and new creations they create the new jobs. it is not the machines that create the jobs. matt: do we have a labor force that is still the bulk of which is trained to do the old stuff, and a time lag it takes for that labor force to be retrained to do the new work is kind of
longer?longer and >> this is where the real problem and split is spirit if you are a new worker coming through the educational system, this is not a challenge, it's an longer? >>opportunity, and always has been. what has gotten tougher is for the worker who has been displaced to recast themselves into the new economy. we have gotten a new situation where the shift, the displacement is occurring faster, and yet the ability to recast yourself has gotten harder. that is the place in the economy where we need to fix something to make it easier for people to reallocate themselves within the labor force. scarlet: it comes back to rate of change, that kind of shocks people. chart that illustrates how occupations and industries follow this natural evolution. early on in the white line part workers have pricing power and then they become phone herbal automation, outsourcing, falling wages.
into the work has turned organizing, coordinating, supervising the resources behind it. why doesn't that part of the evolution involve fewer people then doing the work? >> it does. that's a really good thing. it's when you come up to ofething new, you need lots people to figure it out. they don't really have credentials, you don't know how to organize anything, and you throw resources at it right as you figure out how to do it, you become more productive, the prices fall, the service improves, and that's what creates welfare in the economy. then you have to restart that process over again. the magic of the whole system is you learn how to do something new. at the beginning it's very expensive. can you figure out how to do it cheap, and the jobs to go away. then you think of something new to do, and that's where the new jobs and people go to. matt: that was steve strong from goldman sachs joining us on
"what'd you miss?" ctw investment group is urging both favre or to appoint new board members and callback executive pay. the group speaks for a consortium of retirement funds that manage more than $200 billion. in is joining u.s. lawmakers demanding accountability after wells was caught creating unauthorized user accounts. with ups is teaming up robot maker sci-fi works to test the use of jones for commercial deliveries in remote or difficult to access locations. testing began today. the founder of sci-fi works says the test will allow the company to gather information on cost and then work with ups to look at where drones can add the most value to ups' extensive network. a futurelululemon sees its customersalf are men. the ceo says lululemon could eventually get 40% of its business from male shoppers.
the ceo sees the company positioned as a dual gender brand in your markets. currently about 80% of the lululemon retail shoppers are female. matt: the relationship between big its customers ranks and commodity holdings could become prohibitively expensive. the federal reserve is proposing a rule that would allow the bank to put out more capital, support investments and commodities. the regulation would restrict ownership and limit the amount of trading banks can do. fed officials estimate the proposal would mean $4 million in additional capital for financial firms' curent ac tivities. scarlet: exxon mobil is considering a sale of some of the oil fields it owns in norway's north sea. they also say the world's biggest listed oil company is not running a formal process. exxon normal -- exxon mobil's original oilfield graseck labonte of 64,000 barrels a day in 2015. rupert murdoch was paid
almost $35 million. $26 million and the cochairman received almost $24 million straight rupert was $7.1 actual salary million, the second highest in the s&p 500. and that is your bloomberg business flash. , two big tex stocks in the news today. facebook shares lower after the company admitted it gave advertisers false information. shares of twitter are soaring on talks of a potential takeover. this is bloomberg. ♪
more fromollins has our newsroom. courtney: police in charlotte, north carolina say they have arrested a suspect in the deadly shooting of a protester during demonstrations wednesday night. charlotte says video of the police shooting of keep scott should be released. he says the question is on the timing. scott was fatally shot by an officer who was also black. unrest innights of charlotte, protesters last night were relatively peaceful. a computer hacker who helped islamic state has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. the 20-year-old, a native of kosovo, was sentenced in federal court in alexandria, virginia. earlier this year he became the first person convicted in both the u.s. of computer hacking and terrorism charges. the united nations security council has adopted a u.s. drafted resolution calling on all states to end nuclear weapons testing. it is a move likely to anger
republican lawmakers in washington. nearly three dozen gop senators say they fear president obama would go to the u.n. to stir opposition. according to "the washington universitymerican professor makes his predictions based on a set of 13 variables he calls keys to the white house. they include party mandate, strength of third-party candidates, the health of the economy, and the success of current foreign-policy. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm courtney collins. this is bloomberg. matt: take a look now at the broader u.s. markets, down across the board on concerns about both the price of oil and new regulation from the fed. you can see where off almost 1/2
in the dow jones industrial average s&p 500 down 2168. among the losers is the nasdaq. let's go to the nasdaq markets, where abigail doolittle joins us with the equities action. abigail: we have the nasdaq retreating ever so slightly from earlierrd highs put in this year. near session lows right now, down about 4/10 of 1%. a pretty modest decline and what stands out at the nasdaq is the fact that we have three ipo's go off. this is a company that creates software for cios. you can see the stock is soaring, up more than 40% on its first day of trading. big congrats there to all involved. we are seeing a bit of a recovery at this point for what has been until now a difficult ipo market. sticking with what is working today, we are looking at endo international, shares beaten --
shares are soaring. the company has announced a new ceo, paul campanelli. he's replacing the old seo immediately. the reason investors are so happy or relieved around this,, he came from valley it. there were lots of concerns around his strategies regarding m&a. analysterg intelligence said this gives the company a clean slate, and this is needed to rate the stock is down more than 60% this year. 37 61, a look at g #btv, there is reason to think this stock may move higher. dayes are above the 50 moving average. this tells us there's lots of buying momentum. the stock is on the cusp of possibly breaking out of a range that appears as a bottom there. if that happens, perhaps there is a turnaround here for endo international. matt: talking about the nasdaq
in general, facebook the biggest drag after that company inflated video metrix. what else is dragging on the nasdaq today? >> another big drag today, yahoo shares are lower on the news billiong that 1/2 of 1 user accounts were breached. the question is whether or not they could affect a verizon acquiring yahoo! and its core assets. the consensus on the street seems to be that it will not affect this deal. bloomberg intelligence litigation analyst matthew shantou home says this does not give verizon clear legal basis to walk away, unless it can be proven that yahoo! withheld key facts. right now there are no reports of that. the stock is down today, but perhaps it's a near-term blip down in what has been a phenomenal year for yahoo!. shares are up about 30%. abigail doolittle talking
tech stocks and the nasdaq, thanks for that. reportingloomberg is new details about twitter's possible fail. the company is holding informal talks with several potential buyers and working with goldman sachs for a potential deal. mainforce.com one of the parties interested according to our reporting, and twitter shares surging by 19%. we have a roundtable of guests joining us on the phone. here in studio is our bloomberg news tech reporter. sarah, let's start with you. the latest comment you published as a goldman sachs has been hired to help twitter canvas for potential buyers. it is the first time we've heard of a goldman sachs-twitter peering? >> goldman is the banker that twitter retains for a lot of its in-house banking needs. this is something different. this is trying to figure out who might buy twitter. for twitter, this is just such a
momentous piece of news. this is a company that has moved on sales rumors for a couple years now. we possibly hear about google potentially bidding, news corporation potentially bidding. this is the first time we've seen real action. >> a kind of makes sense that google would be interested in buying twitter. google has tried to get into social in various ways in the past with limited success. what about salesforce? what is the best theory that would explain how twitter would logically sync up with them? to start byou have giving the benefit of the doubt to management. i can imagine what that would be. it's truly not as obvious, not a synergistic. chunk of salesforce business is directly attached to twitter and other social media properties. they have one of the more important social media monitoring tools. they bought a company called buddy media which was social
media management. target is the core of their marketing cloud. we could argue that the synergies are limited in that it's kind of going -- downstream and really deeply downstream in terms of owning actual media property. this is where you have to kind of use your imagination to think, what are they thinking? can you better track the customer journey if you can manage twitter towards your needs as the owner of that property, if you're trying to figure out how consumers think about branson use brands? can you tie that data back into your rm system -- trm system? some of it is willfully optimistic. ad tech and marketing tech and digital media blur over time.
adobe salesforce are pushing it from the marketing tech side. google is pushing more heavily into market tech. just the way we divide up our universe. we don't tend to look at the world similarly. google is pushing harder against those guys. the last idea is the idea that he sees promising technology and he thinks he can provide environment for it to grow. >> it might not be an obvious fit. salesforce is more of an enterprise company, whereas twitter is very consumer driven. >> that's not true. who pays the bills for twitter? advertisers. you can't just think of it through the lens of a consumer. the customer is the advertiser. >> on twitter it's where people build their personal professional brent, right? it's where people are trying to make their voice heard, trying to network and their careers. it's where people update where
they work. think about why salesforce would acquire twitter, it's a lot of the same reasons they did through linkedin earlier this year. they lost to microsoft on that. twitter has a lot of the same data when you think about, business people. people who are try to get noticed what they are doing in their industries via their tweets. matt: i want to know how much it's worth. if i look at a chart of twitter versus facebook, from the up 60%,ipo, facebook is 70%. twitter hasn't come back to its ipo price. is it worth what we paid for it in november of 2013? >> my price target is lower. i met a $22 price target personally. that is the bigger obstacle, when you look at salesforce versus google. google could almost certainly justify a substantially higher
price for this. obviousrgies are more and clearer. salesforce, not only are they smaller, synergies are far less obvious. in a situation where it would be harder for them to put a really high-priced tag on it, let alone close to the ipo price list. matt: the other big news in the tech world today is the fact that facebook seems to have overstated by a significant degree one of the specific steps as it relates to video consumption. so manyerests me is -- people are investing so much money in facebook video as essentially being the future of tv. how significant was this? what did they do that overstated video consumption? >> the overstated the amount of spent on average on videos. facebook counts a video view as
an a video that is spent on vier more than three seconds. when they calculated the average amount of time spent on video, they only calculated that average using the people who would only already watch the video for three seconds. it was way overblown, that average did not count. anyone who looked at it for one second or no seconds. this is a big overstatement of the success of video on facebook's platform. this is a big deal for facebook because video is there talk priority when they talk to advertisers these days. this is one of their hottest ad products. snowballs going to into a huge wells fargo type social media problem? >> is nothing of that scale. from advertisers and agency folks i have interacted with, the majority think it is a big deal. nobody was overcharged.
of facebook being used. the data was used to inform planning decisions. when you are deciding ahead of time, should we spend money with really not it's about the tv plays, it's more about digital video owners. twitter is the beneficiary here. facebook looked a lot better. on the margins, would it have influenced advertisers who account for 1/4 of all spending on facebook. would influence their budgeting? yes. i don't know that we will notice the difference because facebook has so many other engines of growth that drive the business and again, this is primarily impacting the quarter of the business that is very agency centric. so many different publishers
have invested so much into facebook video. everyone is putting money into facebook video in some form right now. and some publishers look think we are not as successful as we thought we were in engaging the viewers? >> the problem for everyone right now is that they are extremely tied to facebook. even if the metrics were -- you hear mark zuckerberg going out and saying that facebook may be all or mostly video in a few years. this is the future that they see. that ise in the media, for your distribution comes from. facebook news feed algorithm will still be prioritizing video and live video for the foreseeable future. >> part of the problem is that
we are interesting facebook to not only set the rate, but to count and measure the engagement as well. cc's ceo says third-party firms should begin and access to measuring engagement. what do you think about that? >>cc's absolutely. it still surprises me when i hear from investors are others who say, the media owners can provide all the metrics you need to read what is the purpose of nielsen? this is why third-party measurement matters. it the value of third-party measurement, and you will arm advertisers with a little bit stronger position, to go to facebook and say, we don't have the ability to use a third-party to measure the time of the view. we can use nielsen to measured demos, but you are not letting us measure time. we would like to do it
person familiar with the matter, they said virgin america and alaska air are going to delay their deal to give the justice department more time to consider it. it's a 2.6 billion dollars merger announced back in april. you can see virgin shares fell but then they were covered somewhat, alaska air, we have been watching their shares as well today and we saw similar reaction. they fell a little bit but now are little changed. why isn't there more concern here over the deal? first of all, the deal premium has been widening. there has been a little bit more skepticism expressed in how virgin america has been trading as to whether the deal is going to get done. this is the interesting one. if you combine the fleet of alaska and virgin, that is a white bar down here, compared with delta and aqua, american and purple, united in pink. we are talking about a much smaller combined airline here. up with george ferguson
who covers airlines for bloomberg intelligence and he said this might be a case of the justice department being overcautious. it has been reluctant to approve some of the larger airline deals and some of the airlines have had to sell off smaller holdings to get approval. it may be the case that they are being overly cautious here over what they consider to be appropriately cautious here, whether the deal is likely to get done in the end. when we are looking at airline deals generally, the last chart we are looking at has to do with airfares. average thomistic coach airfare u.s. -- obviously there is seasonality. fares go up in the summer and they are lower the rest of the year. you see the clear trend here that airfares have been trending slower in the u.s.. that would help explain why you are seeing some smaller carriers team up like this. matt: thanks for much.
matt: this is "bloomberg markets ." as the scandal over wells fargo's consumer accounts continues, many wonder who will take over if the ceo steps down. the company's president and coo might be a likely successor. fantastic story. first when i read when i woke up this morning. i woke up late. what does tim sloan have that
john stumpf doesn't? not connected to the retail business, that's the biggest bonus? >> at this point of this is the number one thing going for him. tim sloan grew up through the bank on the wholesale banking side. corporate and investment banking, smaller for wells than everybody else. tim hasn't really done much of anything on the retail banking side. at a time when the scandal is centered on the retail bank, he represents sort of a clean slate for the board if they do look to replace stumpf. he kind of coo, executes on what john stumpf has laid out predecease someone who can be a transformational ceo or or they looking for someone to just continue guiding the bank in the right direction? >> good question. if you talk to just about all the investors that we talked to, most of the board, they don't want to make big changes at
wells fargo. this has been a successful bank for many years. the current scandal notwithstanding. and so i don't think you'd want to or need to bring in a ceo that's going to make huge changes. for that reason, tim sloan may be a very good choice because he's been there for 30 years. sort of steady as she goes, of the have this baggage retail business, so he can keep wells fargo on its trajectory. matt: on the other hand i got the idea from reading your story that when kerry told said -- kerry told stead, it was her time to go, he was the guy called in to talk to her. did he help her come up with this plan to retire and collect her $100 million? why didn't he fire her? >> that's a good question. to the extent that he has a vulnerability, it's his role as coo and president since november
2015. at that point he oversaw the retail bank that kerry told stead ran. he had this conversation with her. we don't know what went on in that conversation, but he does have some vulnerability there from lawmakers or others who are -- you want to see big hole scale changes. about hisell us background. we know he's been a bulls fargo for decades. beyond that, what are his credentials? he went to university of michigan undergrad, has an mba. he started in the workout group basically figuring out how to make money from bad energy loans at continental illinois, which before washington mutual came along was the biggest bank failure in u.s. history. he knows how to get his hands dirty and figuring out problem assets and how to get them
reperform and eight when he joined wells fargo, he joined on bank,olesale side of the asset based lending, commercial real estate, things like that. he made a lot of money there and that's what brought him up. matt: thanks so much, dakin campbell. let's take a look just quickly at apple, a firm called gfk is saying iphone 7 sales may be disappointing. you can see the intraday there, just dropping like a led zeppelin. not a huge drop relatively. they were down 2% a week ago. but it is dramatic. we will talk more about this. this is bloomberg. ♪
we're live at bloomberg world headquarters. covering stories out of san francisco, washington, ireland, and turkey. the post-fed rally losing momentum. stocks hold the advance as shares slumped on -- earlier and oil falls ahead of the meeting. turkey and the u.s. are nato allies but it's too late -- geopolitical positions are becoming more conflicted. will hear from president under the president. and this is not the first time the social media giant faced chatter. this time of i really is on the table. markets close in two hours. julie hyman joins us with the latest.